tv Morning Joe MSNBC November 5, 2012 6:00am-9:00am EST
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>> i'm grateful for what you do, i appreciate what you do, i cannot make that promise the day before the election. come on. you're asking too much of me. "morning joe" starts right now. what do you think's going to happen? >> i think that we're going to win. i don't think it's going to be close to the electoral college. i think we're going to win clearly. and i think you're going to see -- i think we're going to win this state, ohio. i've been here 23, 24 days, something like that. i think we're going to win iowa, i think we're going to win wisconsin, nevada, new hampshire. i think we've got an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> good morning. look at that, how beautiful. we are here. we are here. what are we, a day away? this is so exciting. good morning, everyone. >> he said it wasn't going to be close. and then he said it was going to be close. maybe he was talking about president clinton.
>> it's monday, november 5th, the day before election day. we have with us mike barnicle, senior political analyst, mark halperin, willie's just walked in. i don't know why you're laughing. >> me? >> no, mike. >> this lighting is disturbing. i don't know who did it. i don't like it. i'm just going to say that right up front. but i'm happy this weekend -- today because this weekend there was a huge sporting event that all the world tuned to. and i can tell you i've never been more proud of the vanderbilt commodores, dudley stadium. >> no, they went on the road and did that. they went to kentucky, to commonwealth stadium. sure. 40-0, 5-4. mika, one more win and vandy's bowl eligible. look how excited mika is. >> that's amazing. >> midas. >> laugh it up. laugh it up. >> we are. >> when we're in the music city bowl, we'll see. and by the way, alabama, what a game. >> did they win? >> ha.
that was an incredible game. >> that was a great game. and we just want to say, all the great people of the state of alabama, my heart is with you and i love you and i'm one of you, the entire state of alabama just wants to extend our arms and put a big old bear hug out and thank you, les miles. seriously. if not for you, we wouldn't be going to the national championship game. no, i mean, lsu outplayed us. they're a great team. they should have won the game. les miles, he had -- did some terrible calls -- i tell you what. that kid, man, a.j. mccarron. >> oh, my gosh. >> i said before the final drive, i had a friend with me, he said he's had a horrible half. i said, listen, this kid has ice water in his veins. like if he were on set with us right now and the lights were shifting and it suddenly went dark and barnicle went bright, he'd keep talking. 32 touchdowns, no interceptions. >> no interceptions.
>> what is with these lights? what is with these lights, t.j.? it's not unnoticeable to us. i'm blinded by the light. >> i did it. okay? >> just take the shot to admit his error. >> there's nothing wrong. >> there's nothing wrong. you guys are obviously just a little bit under the weather. my daughter gave you this mug. >> yes, she did. thank you, carly. i appreciate it. >> let's get to the news -- >> a.j. mccarron, great. barnicle now. >> can we have sunglasses now? the studio's so bright, i gotta wear shades. >> it is strobe lighting. seriously? it takes halperin back to studio 54. doing coke with jagger in the basement. okay, so go ahead. >> i'll try and transition to the more serious news from you idiots. and front page of "the financial times," the runners. remember the marathon, that controversy that culminated in
the kacancellation late on frid. runners took to the streets to help people. i thought it was kind of an interesting, very positive outcome to what was a big disappointment to a lot of people but also really important to those who are hurting badly, that new york doesn't need a party. >> that's better than having shrapnel thrown at them. you've got to wonder why anybody thought from the beginning to run this marathon. that was tone deaf and stupid. >> i did get why they were thinking about it, but i also understand why they canceled. >> anybody that's not a runner doesn't get it. it was stupid and tone deaf and the fact it took them that long while people were out of their house freezing without electricity i think was an embarrassment. >> at least i got you talking about sandy. let's go to the news. on the eve of the presidential election -- today marks one full week since the hurricane came ashore. and the hurricane, at least at this point, killed at least 110 people. leaving a path of destruction that reshaped entire stretches of the northeast coastline.
the cover of "new york" magazine shows the breadth of the impact on manhattan alone. much of the southern half of the island in pitch black. this morning nearly 1 million people in new jersey remain without power or heat. as overnight temperatures dip near freezing. as cold weather sets in, new york city mayor michael bloomberg says as many as 40,000 people may need to find new places to live. that is a daunting task for a city known for its already tight housing market. the announcement set up the potential return of fema trailers like those used in the wake of hurricane katrina. gas lines hours long stretched through the weekend across the tri-state area. in some cases stations are now using gas-powered generators to pump the fuel out of the ground. new york governor andrew cuomo says it could be several more days before the region's fuel shortage is resolved. in new york city, where 145,000 households are still without power, yesterday's marathon, of course, as we mentioned, was canceled for the first time in 40 years.
that didn't stop, though, as we mentioned at the top of the show hundreds of runners from showing up where the race was supposed to begin in staten island, hit hard there, instead of a marathon, they literally ran a relief effort. jogging through neighborhoods to help dig out debris and offer supplies. and willie, you spent some time on staten island over the weekend as well. >> yeah, i went down on saturday. i went over there. i hopped on the staten island ferry, caught the s-78 bus. these are some of the pictures i took. they're not professional. i just took them with my own camera. i noticed two things. one is that television does not do it justice. this was a neighborhood strewn with trash because people have given up on their houses and are now just emptying them out, throwing everything into the street. that was the first thing. you have boats in the street here. houses totally hollowed out. a lot of loss of life in that neighborhood. >> this is incredible. >> but also, the neighborhood itself, the way they're treating each other, the way they're working together, they're all doing shifts. there were at least three or four guys working grills,
cooking for everybody. people driving around in pickup trucks handing out sandwiches, handing out drinks. and i didn't see a lot of heads hanging. they saw this as a job. okay, we've got to clean up this neighborhood. we've got to rebuild it. but the reality is when they come back from this, they've got to find new places to live, a lot of them. in the immediate future, they have to find somebody to stay with, a shelter or family. that's the football field right there by the beach, the field turf just rolled up like carpeting. it was an eye opener, but i will say, if anyone's thinking about helping, all you have to do -- >> just show up. >> just go. you don't have to sign up or anything. >> staten island always seems to be forgotten by people in manhattan. i think there's some people in manhattan that were slow to recognize that. >> definitely. >> and it's very disturbing. but my gosh, it's devastating. but you say that people aren't hanging their heads. >> they're really not. they're working together. neighbors are helping neighbors throw stuff out in the street. i will say, if you're thinking
about it, just go. and it doesn't have to be staten island. go to the jersey shore, long beach and long island. if you see a guy trying to move something out of his house, walk up to him and help him. very simple. >> my husband spent the day in the far rockaways. he said it's the same situation. add to that the desperation to people who can't move, older people, people who are in higher buildings. how can they get their medicine? so there is a lot to be done, complete and utter devastation and desperation. how many days now. >> what did jim find with the attitude out there? >> hurting. people hurting. and sleeping in their cars, waiting for gasoline. sleeping in their cars because their homes are gone. and it's just -- you know, you go a couple miles left or a couple miles right, and it changes like drastically from an untouched neighborhood to a neighborhood that is completely devastated where the people are still shellshocked and don't know what to do.
they don't know what to do. so even, as you said, showing up and lending a hand, putting your arm around someone, listening to them is half the battle sometimes to help someone get through the day. but then there are a lot of people who are elderly or infirmed in some ways, and they can't get to their medicine. they were not prepared at all. and there are potentially worse situations to come. this is going to drag out. >> it is. and of course, mika, all of this comes right on the heels -- right before the presidential election. we're 24 hours away before voting begins. there is also a political dynamic to this. >> right. >> and i'm sure -- >> a timing dynamic politically as well to be honest. >> there's a timing dynamic as well. and mark halperin, i have heard from republicans that are very close to mitt romney that are tied in that campaign. and some have actually said it publicly that this election
froze in place their momentum two, three days. you heard haley barbour say that publicly. i think karl may have said something as well. got a lot of people close to him inside that were saying this on friday, saying, you know, our internals just. soed. >> the crowds are huge. >> their crowds are huge. you followed romney and said the crowds -- you told me what everybody else is telling me, romney's crowds are absolutely electric. >> i saw the president in ohio and governor romney in ohio over the weekend. and there's no question that governor romney's crowds are big. the president's drew some big crowds this weekend, too, including saturday night in virginia with bill clinton, but there's no question that one of the things the romney people can seize on is the potential that they have more enthusiasm. plenty of enthusiasm for the president, too. but there's a lot of enthusiasm for mitt romney and for beating the president on that side. >> and people get upset when you say this, but i get to talk to a reporter, jeff zellny said it
yesterday, "new york times," great reporter talked about how the energy is on the side of romney. i think that may be the challenger versus the incumbent, but you don't have that excitement from everybody that's been out there, that the president's rally. this past weekend, at least. >> i mean, saturday, you know, keep my dates straight, saturday midday in cleveland suburb, one of the swing counties in cleveland, the president did an event in a high school gym, great event, but it wasn't what i would have expected the last weekend in cleveland, the last time he goes to cleveland for him to do. the president's team has plenty of enthusiasm. they clearly have a strong turnout operation. they're microtargeting efforts are much more sophisticated than i think they've led us to believe so far. we'll find out later. but if you're a republican and you want something to hang this on, the enthusiasm. if you go to the storm, you're right. there are plenty of republicans close to the romney campaign who are saying basically if we lose this, it will be because of the
storm. we'll never know. there's no way to tease that out, but there are plenty of them who believe that that could have been the moment in which the election was decided. by blotting out their momentum. >> they started fretting about it when they saw the polls, the movement stop, on thursday, friday. the president was seen with chris christie doing a great job. mike barnicle, the president, i think, one of his great failures over the past four years, even if partisans don't like hearing it right now, is effectively being able to reach out to the other side, for whatever reason, and americans saw the president and chris christie on the jersey shore coming together to get things done. the way politicians used to get things done. >> yeah. >> and it helped. >> it's probably one more -- i think maybe more than helps, it's probably one more item that we will never be able to get to post-election if governor romney wins, the christie factor, the storm factor, the christie factor. what it did was it gave the president the platform to appear in front of the country. not just here in this battered
area as the president of the united states, as a leader, someone who's going to get something -- >> not as a guy running 30-second commercials and snotty romney versus obama. suddenly it was president obama and governor christie. and politically, for the president, it happened in a state where you had one of the preeminent republicans making that an even more poignant moment when they embraced. >> even his -- even governor christie's statement yesterday while he was -- that he was going to vote for governor romney was a powerful statement in and of itself in what he said about the president of the united states. >> no question. and look, more basic than just that, we said from the beginning, every day the topic is not the president's economic record. it was a good day for the president. and we weren't talking about tax returns or bain capital, but we were talking about something besides obama's -- president obama's record on the economy. and that was not the way the romney campaign wanted to close.
>> and mika, the romney people expected, and i think i expected, i think a lot of other republicans expected, and a lot of pundits and pollsters expected this thing to really tighten up and romney to move ahead in some of the swing states. that just hasn't happened. you look at swing state polls that have come out, there's some that are tight. there's a pennsylvania one that's tight, a michigan one that's tight. but overall, the president's up -- i mean, the president is stubbornly holding on, to paraphrase him, he's clinging to gods, guns and a two-point lead in every swing state poll. every swing state poll. >> let's take a look. we're 24 hours away from the election. can you guys believe this? >> thank god. >> new polling offering a snapshot to just how close this race is. in a general election matchup of likely voters, three major polls all have it as a statistical tie. >> look at that. it's crazy. >> according to the nbc news/"wall street journal" survey, president obama holds a
slim 48-47 lead. the same toll taken eight years ago strikingly similar. incumbent president george w. bush held the same 48-47% lead over senator kerry the day before the election. in battleground states including colorado, ohio, virginia, florida and new hampshire, president obama has a slight advantage. he leads romney 50%-46%. when asked which candidate is best to improve the economy, romney leads by the president by five points. that's a closer margin than it was in mid-october. however, when asked which candidate is best for the middle class, the president has a double-digit lead. 51%-40%. there's also good news for obama on his handling of hurricane sandy. 67% say they approve of the way the president dealt with the disaster last week. that's pretty big. >> that's showing up in the national polls, mika. >> yeah. >> i think it's also showing up in the battleground state polls. >> yeah. >> where you have people who
weren't affected by the storm but who saw the president's handling of the storm and standing there with chris christie. >> they were watching the coverage. >> one of the two iconic moments of this campaign. >> that's an interesting symbol to get back to at one point. but back to the battlegrounds where tomorrow's election will ultimately be decided, iowa, the latest "des moines register" poll has president obama with a fi five-point lead over mitt romney. >> go back to that one for one second. >> go back to iowa. >> the iowa polls, of all the polls that are out, this is the only poll where romney people have shown despair. they don't believe a lot of the ohio polls. this one really surprised them this weekend. they really believed they were going to win iowa. i don't know if they believe that at this point. >> look at florida. romney has the advantage, polling six points ahead in a new "tampa bay times"/"miami herald" poll. new hampshire, a wmur has the race all tied up at 47%-47%.
the race is also tied in pennsylvania according to a "tribune-review" poll, pennsylvania hasn't gone republican since 1988. >> mark halperin, this came out yesterday. democrats say this is a republican-leaning poll, and also it's outside -- is this an outlier, or is this the direction we're going? >> there really hasn't been enough polling there. again, pennsylvania is a weird state. there's no early voting. there's been only late advertising there. governor romney did a late-night event last night that was pretty big. i agree with mike. it seems unlikely that romney will win this. if he does, i think he'll iwin n a landslide. bill clinton's spending the day there. and he is a big asset. >> i think the obama people are confident in other swing states for the reason they may be a little scared in pennsylvania right now because no early voting. there's been no campaigning there. they didn't rip mitt romney to
shreds like they said they were going to do to john heilemann back in may when they said we're going to tear him from limb to limb, which they did in ohio. they didn't in pennsylvania. so pennsylvania is one state, mika, that is controlled. and virginia, the latest nbc poll has the president up by one point. if i'm mitt romney's team, willie, that concerns me a lot. he should be up by a couple points. >> and take a look at ohio. the president holds a two-point lead according to a "columbus dispatch" poll leading 50%-48%. also, "the denver post" finds the president leading mitt romney, 47%-45%. >> another reason to be disturbed. right now, willie, mitt romney should be ahead in colorado. he should be ahead -- i'm just saying, he should be ahead in colorado, in virginia. he should be ahead in north carolina. he should be ahead in florida. he is according to "the miami herald" poll. virginia and colorado are two states that really give me pause for the romney camp. >> especially virginia. let's pause for a moment and appreciate how close this race is.
we just went through about ten polls all either tied or within the margin of error. >> today, 24 hours to go, you can look at the polls. it's okay. >> they matter. >> i would ask you, mark, about ohio. we've sat here for weeks and said this is really going to come down to ohio. that poll was two points. the president has had some polls over the last week that showed him with a bigger lead. where are you hearing this race is right now? >> it depends. where can republicans look for hope, a lot of these polls the president's ahead, but governor romney's doing well with independents. and whoever wins independents in ohio's going to win, probably. almost certainly. and i think that the president has -- >> wait, let me stop you there. let me stop you there. >> yeah. >> because every republican i've talked to that knows how to run campaigns, they say if you win independents by five or six points, you win ohio. in every single race. and yet they're up in a lot of polls by double digits among independents. and they're losing ohio. this is what's driving republicans mad.
they see this huge win among independents, but they're still losing. explain that. >> well, it depends how you model the electorate. one of the numbers i've been watching of late after the denver debate was more people think the president -- how many more people think the president's going to win? i don't think there's been a poll yet i've seen where more people think governor romney's going to win. but the gap has narrowed. it's moved back a little bit in general since the storm. but governor romney, i think, is where he needs to be. in terms of the psychology. you want to go into the last weekend and election day where people are thinking you can win. you don't want anyone to think it's over because people want to vote for the winner. the independent number is one thing that republicans have gotten out there and talked a lot about. and i can't get my arms around it completely. i do know that if the electorate is a lot like the 2008 electorate, the president's going to win over romney. >> the president wins. >> that's not going to happen. if you look at ohio, elected kasich and portman, pennsylvania
republicaned toomey. wisconsin elected and kept in office scott walker in the last two years. there's a lot of reasons to think the electorate is going to be somewhat different and maybe substantially different than four years ago. >> speaking of ohio, willie, chuck todd is going through, an nbc/marist poll had the president ahead by six. but then he changed the model to be a split between '08 and '04 and suddenly it's a three-point race. you have a cnn poll that has ohio as a three-point race, "columbus dispatch" is a two-point race. i've got to say right now as a practicing politician of 20 years, if i'm betting, i'm betting on the president because every poll's lined up for the president. that said, you think about 18 -- 1980 where every elite in washington and manhattan was sure jimmy carter was going to win. i don't care what they say now. look at frank reynolds saying what the hell is going on on the election night? nobody saw the reagan revolution
coming. nobody saw it coming. let me say it again, revisionist, nobody saw it coming. and then i remember walking on set in 2004, and everybody -- not only at this network, at nbc, abc, cbs, in boston, in austin, all talking about president kerry. that was two hours before the polls closed. >> bob shrum. >> everybody knew that john kerry had won the race. everybody. let me repeat. everybody. two hours before. and then we all remembered what happened in new hampshire when everybody was dancing on hillary clinton's grave. >> oh, my god. >> the day of the new hampshire primary. >> let's look at primary crowds. >> mika and i, we're at a nashua gym and saw hillary up there speaking. >> they were, like, bringing people in from out of state. >> everybody came in from massachusetts. and i said, you know, she deserves a better ending than this. and yet, you never know until americans go into the voting booth and vote. >> well, i recall in new
hampshire in february of 2008 being in the lobby of the holiday inn with you and telling you that i had just bumped into lou dellesandrou who was running hillary's campaign. >> and everybody laughed. >> everybody did laugh. that gets to the ultimate magic and mystery that is election day. that we can sit here and blather on forever about what has happened and what is about to happen. we can look at two campaigns that have spent a total of $2 billion. >> amazing. >> on ads and all the magic. >> you have a senate campaign? where someone spent $100 million. >> tomorrow people go and vote. >> and tomorrow -- >> and we don't know what's going to happen. >> -- people make the decision and we don't know what's going to happen. and i remember falling in love with politics, reading the making of the president in 1960, and you look at teddy white's opening lines about the magic of american democracy starting quietly as the snow falls.
well, guess what? that was 52 years ago. it's going to happen again tomorrow. >> and still a ground game that does it. >> it's not just the presidency, it's control of the senate. it's the entire dynamic for the next four years that will be decided in the next 24 hours. hopefully. >> let's hope. i don't want a recount. i've done that. >> what about notre dame. >> been there, done that. >> triple overtime. >> okay. all right. >> i am praying we get them to the national championship. seriously. that will be fun. >> remember, it's boss lady. ahead this morning, we're going to bring in senator john mccain, former senior adviser to mccain's 2008 presidential campaign, steve schmidt. also nbc news political director, chuck todd. and obama deputy campaign manager, stephanie cutter. up next, mike allen with the top stories in the "politico playbook." but first, let's go outside to democracy plaza, bill karins is there with a check on the forecast. bill. >> good monday morning, everyone. we've got an election day forecast, we've got a nor'easter
coming. of course, we're recovering from sandy. this is a beautiful scene behind me. thankfully that big storm won't be here till wednesday and thursday. of course, the ice rink behind p prometheus. 207 will be the magic number. we'll announce what state wins what throughout tuesday night. let me take you to the forecast. first off, 2 million people still don't have power. this is the coldest morning yet of this fall season. so hopefully everyone's in shelters or family and friends because it's very chilly to try to ride this one out in your house waiting for power. the next storm is already on the way. today it is diving down through the middle of the country with showers and rain. today we're going to call for a forecast with rain down along the gulf coast. that's about it. it's a nice monday. your election day forecast is where it gets interesting. the storm rounds the bend in the southeast. a little bit of rain in georgia, south carolina for election day. really shouldn't affect the turnout. and then finally the nor'easter part of the forecast, that's when the storm is going to be up here along the new england coast. we're going to see some minor coastal damage, additional power outages and some inland heavy
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welcome back to "morning joe." 6:30 on the dot here on the east coast. let's go down to "politico" now, the chief white house correspondent there is mike allen. he's got a look at the playbook. mike, happy election eve. >> thank you. and happy election week. >> let's do a little wednesday morning quarterbacking, if we could. you guys are offering a take on how democrats and republicans may spin a loss depending on who loses. walk us through some of those. >> yeah. you can already hear what the two sides are going to say if their guy goes down.
starting with romney, republicans are going to say, he was wrong for the times. we never really loved him anyway. he struggled to get through the primaries. this is a time when people are down on wall street. the nominee was closer to wall street than ever. huge mistake from the primaries. getting to the right of rick perry on immigration. well, it turned out that latinos were a lot more important to mitt romney than rick perry was. and in the long run, had a lot more to do with the outcome of this race. also, people will say that he should have taken on the auto bailout sooner. we've learned that senator rob portman of ohio had urged him to do that for a long time. and the campaign's view was, we've lost those voters anyway. but it turns out the voters who cared about the auto bailout were working-class voters that romney needed and should have gotten. on the obama side, if the president loses, if the
pollsters are surprised if a lot of people have egg on their faces, people will say americans fell out of love. that because of the conditions in the country, that connection he had with americans from 2008 was just lost. and people will say he just wasn't that into it. we saw in the first debate that he didn't have the passion that he did before. i don't think anybody will fault the technical part of his campaign. they've run this amazing campaign. they've stuck to what they said a year ago. they said how they were going to go at mitt romney, assuming it was going to be mitt romney. and they've gone with it. amazingly, the obama team, if they win, will have won the white house under two totally different approaches and theories, on the most optimistic and broad case and on one of the most clinical and narrow cases. >> as you point out in the piece, too, they'll certainly point to super pac money,
third-party money. i think mitt romney, if he loses, will have liked to have had that 2008 op-ed in "the new york times" back about the bailout. >> definitely. he might blame sandy and the media, too. >> we'll be talking to you a lot today and tomorrow. the giants and the nfl commissioner roger goodell pay tribute to victims of the storm and those who jumped in quickly to help. we'll run through the day in the nfl with mike florio next. >> also, we'll show you a map where romney can lose nevada, iowa, ohio, michigan and pennsylvania and still win when we return. ♪ [ male announcer ] start with nothing, build a ground-breaking car. good. now build a time machine. go here, find someone who can build a futuristic dash board display. bring future guy back. watch him build a tft display like nothing you've ever seen. get him to explain exactly what that is. the thin film transistor display... [ male announcer ] mmm, maybe not. just show it. customize the dash,
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joining us now for the "morning joe gridiron grind," nbc sports' mike florio, the founder of the sports blog profootballtalk.com. good morning. >> great to be back. how are you? >> we're doing well. let's start with one of the late games in new jersey. the giants hosting the steelers. a nice tribute before the game to all the first responders and the victims of the storm. but once it started, the giants jump out to a lead and then give it up to the steelers. >> ten-point lead in the fourth quarter. this is what we see from the giants in the middle of the season. they get off to their big start, 6-2, and then slide a little bit. they just couldn't get the big plays. special teams was a nightmare. you could just feel it falling apart. and this is what the giants tend to do. >> is this a fumble, bay the
way, roethlisberger? what's your call? >> no, that was a pass. that was a horrible call because the ball's in his hand. they say the hand has to be empty. it wasn't empty. he didn't have the grip the way he would have liked, but that was a horrible call. >> what about the penalty the refs missed. >> yeah, the block in the back. there were a lot of steelers fans who were skeptical at the outset that maybe the fix was in. if it was, it didn't work. >> it was a little glimpse of the old eli, like the bad eli who we haven't seen in a long time. >> yeah, but the bad eli usually gives way to the good eli. that's what was amazing, when you need a play in the second half, fourth quarter, you expect to get it from eli, just didn't get it yesterday. >> the atlanta falcons. >> joe perks up on that one. 8-0. >> undefeated. >> go falcons. >> unbelievable. and everybody keeps thinking this is the week they're going to lose. this is the week they're going to lose. they struggled sunday night and pulled it together and ended up winning the game. desperate cowboys team. that's what makes it more impressive. they really needed that win. it was an opportunity to gain
ground on the giants. cowboys blew it, cowboys keep rolling and they go to new orleans this week. >> mike just asked you about it, but how much more patient does jerry jones have with this team? >> you never know with jerry jones because he'll tell you he's all in with these guys and then he'll change his mind. he did it with terrell owens a couple years ago. i could see him saying jason garrett's my guy, season's over, he'll say good-bye. >> quietly the chicago bears also in the nfc, 7-1. >> charles tillman forced four fumbles on his own, 51-20. it was so bad that titans' owner bud adams put everyone in the organization on notice after the game that if this continues, people are going to be fired. and the bears are moving toward a bye week. it could be the bears/falcons showdown for the berth in the super bowl out of the nfc. >> so if i gave you a choice, falcons, bears, better team in the nfc. >> it would be hard for the falcons to beat the bears right now with that defense. it really would be. >> what is the story -- can you
bring us up to speed on the new orleans coach, sean payton, his contract stat sinus. >> this is crazy, this came out of the blue yesterday that sean payton did a contract extension last year. at some point in the past year, the league office said no the language in there isn't right. there's a belief he'll be a free agent after his suspension. i'm told the saints are adamant, he'll be their coach. i can't imagine any set of circumstances where payton would not be the coach of the saints. that's out there and people are saying this is just crazy. when you have jerry jones, you never know. >> rg3 has gobbled up most of the rookie quarterback attention, but andrew luck is having a great season. yesterday 433 passing yards and a win. >> he broke the single-game rookie passing record. he's on pace to break the single-season passing yardage record. more importantly, a year after they were 2-14, and remember, the colts were 3-13 when peyton manning was a rookie. marshall faulk and marvin harrison, 5-3, in contention and looking good. it's a great story with the coach going back into the
hospital for another round of leukemia treatment and they're on their way. >> a great post-game speech from chuck pagano. meanwhile, peyton manning, former colts quarterback, he's pushing his team along toward the playoffs. >> finally getting toward a softer spot in the schedule. they're in a horrible division. we're already mapping out the playoff possibilities, but indianapolis at denver, peyton's old team facing peyton. first round of the playoffs, it could happen. that would be a great game. >> i like how you predict that halfway through the season. >> well, you've got to do something. we've got to map it all out. >> mike florio, thank you so much. >> 'bama/lsu. did you see it? >> i saw the tail end of it. unbelievable. nick saban. >> a.j. mccarron, this kid -- >> the heisman. he was 1 for 7 until they woke up, but you wake up at the right time. >> that's the amazing thing about him is, you knew even going into the last series that it didn't matter. he's like one of these guys, and yeah, i turned to a friend, i said, you know what? the kid's like ben hogan. he's got ice water in his veins. he doesn't remember anything
that happened. and there was a minute, what, 1:20 left. >> that emotion was great. >> eli manning. it's that eli manning mentality. you forget about everything that's happened, you block it out and you just go get it done. >> make a prediction, who are the last two teams standing for the bcs title game? >> you just feel there's a way notre dame is going to finagle their way into this. >> come on, irish. we want to see you in miami, baby! >> i'd like to see that 62-point oregon offense against alabama's defense. mike florio, thanks, mike. good to see you. when we come back, richard wolffe joins us for "mika's must-read opinion pages." keep it on "morning joe."
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a live look at the white house as the sun comes up on this monday morning, the day before election day. joining us now, msnbc political analyst and vice president and executive editor of msnbc.com, richard wolffe. good to have you on board. >> richard's going to tell us who's going to win. richard, who's going to win? >> manchester city. >> i've got some must-reads for you. are you all ready? >> we can't wait. >> "the new york times," jobs are growing. mr. obama has asserted his employment agenda including school and infrastructure rebuilding and aid to states to hire teachers. this was detailed in his jobs bill from last year. he has also vowed responsible approach to deficit reduction, including preserving tax cuts for most americans while letting the high-end bush tax cuts expire. such approaches would work, but time and again, they have met with a stone wall from republicans, who have been determined to keep the economy as weak as possible to hurt mr. obama's campaign. >> you can tell it's the day before the election. >> the republicans' last-minute
tactic has been a cynical one, to make it clear that they will continue obstructing mr. obama if he wins. that's a hollow argument for mr. romney. and it does not change the fact that mr. romney has no good ideas and mr. obama has plenty. >> oh, my lord! is this a comic book version of "the new york times" editorial page, or is it the editorial page? >> no. this is what the paper believes. and if you trust "the new york times." >> there are a lot of great reporters who don't have a two-dimensional view of the world. >> what's your problem with it? >> i know you agree with it. >> i do. i agree with every word of it. >> chime in. republicans bad, democrats good. so say "the new york times." what say you? >> i think it may be a hollow argument for mitt romney, but it's a real argument. republican obstruction will continue no matter what the president does if he gets re-elected, whether it's a one, two or seven-point margin. he had seven points last time and republicans never got out of
campaign mode. the question is joe biden talked to chris matthews yesterday. he said the fever will break if the president wins re-election, which he believes will happen by a big margin in the electoral college. i don't know that the fever will break even if you think it is a fever. they are going to carry on, doing what they've done because it worked for them in 2010. it will probably work for them in the next midterm. >> it won't. >> can i just say also, it's what they believe in, too. and let me also say this. if mitt romney comes with a package that's heavy on tax increases and heavy on spending, the house republicans will kill that bill, too. >> oh. >> so it may be a fever -- i mean, i understand democrats thinking that's a fever. joe biden believing that. but we kind of believe in smaller government. and "the new york times" saying this president -- >> that's exactly what we need right now. >> -- that's rolled up trillion-dollar deficits, being responsible on deficits, that strikes some of us as funny, mark. >> i wonder what they think of mary reed putting out a
statement saying if mitt romney wins, his agenda is dead on arrival in the senate. >> yeah. >> seems like kind of the same thing. >> i think we probably should read "the wall street journal" editorial page for that. >> for that. >> my point is, and, of course, "the new york times" is a liberal newspaper for a liberal city, and that is the sort of editorials that you would expect the day before an election. i'm poking but, you know, that's why you have "the new york times" editorial page. >> no, this rang true when i read it. >> msnbc.com. it is a great country. >> it is. and at times like this, we have to look forward and say, who's going to get stuff done? >> yes. >> it would be great if people looked at the result of this election and said, someone has a mandate. >> right. >> and you know, the political tides may be moving one direction or another. so parties have to move with it. i would love to see both parties deal with what they all know is a real factor, which is latino votes. what are we talking about? on one side, maybe the dream act. on the other side, who knows? >> who knows?
>> you know, it would be great looking at the trends of this country if they both dealt with what this country really looks like. >> i'm going to do "the wall street journal" editorial since you mentioned it. "obama's progressive gamble. mr. obama has governed from the left, not because he miscalculated his priorities but because these are his priorities. his first term is best understood as a race to put himself in the pantheon of the great progressive presidents, wilson, fdr, lbj who expanded the state's control over the private economy and over the wants and needs of the american middle class. unable to run on his record, he has conducted a low-down re-election campaign based on destroying his opponent's character. if the polls are right even if he wins, he will do so since the first president since wilson to win with a smaller margin than he did the first time. but for mr. obama, this won't matter. his great progressive gamble
will have paid off. >> it was balanced. >> i don't know what to think. >> subtly fought. >> it's black or it's white. >> you know what, it sang, like the beatles. it was beautiful. i guess "the wall street journal," again, richard, a bit more nuanced and balanced than i expected. >> interesting, in turn, they seem to be thinking the gamble will pay off. i don't remember them complaining too much about president bush's re-election campaign style in 2004, but maybe that's just a trick of memory. >> you talked about mandate. you used the word "mandate." one of the things that concerns me is that this race is going to be so close at the end that both sides -- because democrats, harry reid's saying it on the democratic side. republicans are going to be saying it on the house side. that both sides are going to say, whoever wins, you don't have a mandate. if mitt romney thinks he's going to get democrats to magically work with him in the senate and the house, he's out of his mind. >> right. >> and especially if you have a situation that could happen where mitt romney wins the popular vote. the president wins the electoral vote. wow.
>> remember, it wasn't close in 2008. if anyone had a mandate, it was president obama. the economy fell off the cliff. did the two sides work together? not a bit of it. not from the start. why would it be different this time? >> well, because it has to be. well, what are we going to do, go off the fiscal cliff? >> they'll come up with some -- they'll patch and fix in the lame-duck session, and that's it. >> forced. >> you were showing me a map, mark halperin, a couple blocks back where mitt romney could lose nevada, ohio, iowa, pennsylvania, michigan, a lot of states and still win. which one -- what's that map look like? >> well, this is not a prediction by any means. it's something ari fleischer, former bush press secretary, floated last night on the twitters. and again, i think the trick is, it's the assumption the president's got a commanding position in the electoral college. this is a way he found to get
governor romney to 270 without winning ohio, pennsylvania, minnesota or iowa. so he wins all the mccain states, nevada, all the mccain states plus new hampshire, colorado, wisconsin and the southern states. probably the toughest one in there would be wisconsin. and then new hampshire. but that's not -- that's not a crazy thing. >> i actually see romney winning florida, north carolina and virginia. if he doesn't win colorado, he's in trouble. new hampshire certainly could happen. but wisconsin, man -- >> he's taking pennsylvania, too. and in which case it's a sweep. >> i think it's more likely that he takes pennsylvania than wisconsin. and i've always called pennsylvania fool's gold. i just don't see mitt romney cracking wisconsin. i just don't -- unless, like you said, there's a huge landslide. i don't see pennsylvania, but pennsylvania seems more likely because no focus until the last week. >> you'd have to buy into the argument that there's a break in
undecided voters at this point which i would argue is hard given what we saw with sandy. >> with so few undecided voters as well. >> right. and you also had a countervailing big-news moment which gave the obama campaign these incredible images. you've got that. look, there are not just two theories of philosophy of politics. there are two theories of campaigning. one is that the republicans have natural enthusiasm. and the other is this microtargeted obama campaign, is it true? >> and mika, the great irony of this that the "game change" boys will obviously put in their book that the man of data, the man whose entire life was sort of like a scene out of "the matrix" where the numbers go across the screen, and he is the matrix, mitt romney is depending on the passion of the other people and not the hard numbers to get elected. >> you're seeing it in the crowds at least. richard, stay with us. >> but he doesn't have the numbers. mike murphy join us, chuck todd and david gregory. we'll be right back.
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discussion roundtable at the "y" in upper manhattan. go to 92y.org for more information. >> we have already, willie, the escape route in case things don't go the way are expected and mitt romney wins. >> right. 92y.org. also go to mojo.msnbc.com. tomorrow night. hope to see you there. it's going to be so much fun. >> it's going to be great. >> coming up next, moderator of "meet the press," david gregory joins the table. also political strategist steve schmidt. we're back in just a moment. or that printing in color had to cost a fortune. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk.
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this week has been -- it's been very trying for a lot of americans. and my heart goes out to everyone in the new york and new jersey area. and in these trying times, i think there is something very important that a lot of people are forgetting. >> which is? >> i'm mitt romney, and i'm still running for president. >> what are the issues that sandy has brought to the forefront is disaster relief. it's been pointed out that during one of the republican debates, you said that you would cut funding to fema. >> seth, in my defense, okay, that was a comment i made during a republican primary debate, okay? that's like judging a person's behavior while they're pledging a fraternity.
okay? okay, look. now, you can't hold a man, or a woman, to what he -- to what he -- or she -- said at a republican primary debate, okay? and i want to make it clear that when i said we should get rid of fema, it was sunny. >> so you wouldn't defund fema as president? >> oh, oh, it hurts my feelings that you would think that, seth. it really does, okay? because if there's anything people should know about mitt romney at this point is that nothing i've said in the past should be any indication of my positions in the future. >> welcome back to "morning joe." look at that. aerial view of democracy plaza. joining us now at the top of the hour -- >> you know what? i'm just more proud to be an american right now than i think i've ever been. >> i think it's going to be fun broadcasting from there tomorrow for six hours straight. >> by the way, if you're not from here, that is where -- and you're trying to figure out
where exactly democracy plaza is, it's right around the same point where we put up the comcast commerce tree every december. >> that's true. yeah. right now it is all about democracy. it's going to be fun to cover the election there. >> and by the way, for our friends at comcast, be assured that we called it the general electric commerce tree. >> exactly. >> every christmas as well. >> and david, you did "meet the press" there yesterday. >> we did. >> it's beautiful. we had a fantastic roundtable. we were lifted. i want to play a little hockey there between texas and missouri. that's what i'd like to do. that's the one thing i wasn't able to do. there's no nhl season. >> we've got to bring them in. that's fun. >> did you notice people are skating? nobody will skate over texas. >> don't mess with texas. >> i want to hear the bush imitation. do it. >> don't mess with texas. >> i miss him. does anybody miss him? >> absolutely. >> joining us now, former
strategist of the mccain/palin campaign, now msnbc political analyst, steve schmidt, david gregory and richard wolffe still with us. new polling is offering a snapshot of just how close the race still is. in a general election matchup of likely voters, three major polls all have it as a statistical tie. according to the nbc news/"wall street journal" survey, president obama holds a slim 48%-47% lead. the same poll taken eight years ago, strikingly similar. incumbent president george w. bush held the same 48%-47% lead over senator john kerry the day before that election. in battleground states including colorado, ohio, virginia, florida and new hampshire, president obama has a slight advantage. he leads romney 50%-46%. there's also good news for obama on his handling of hurricane sandy. 67% say they approve of the way the president dealt with the disaster last week. >> so we're going to go through
the states, david. but before we do that, you put this perfectly. you talked to people that have been on the campaign. there's a head hard split. explain what you mean. >> well, when i talk to the obama people, they seem very data driven and saying that we have a model that says if we turn out, particularly minority and younger voters, if we meet those targets, we can win this thing. and if we underperform, then we're going to be in real trouble. but they feel like they're commanding in the electoral college. when you talk to the romney folks and other republicans, there's a sense that there's some kind of wave coming. >> something's happening. >> it may not be borne out it all the data, but there is a sentiment out there. there is so much enthusiasm that is both against the president and increasingly for romney. now, i think the former is bigger than the latter, but nevertheless, there's enough energy out there to do it. it's difficult, though, as a reporter to sort of pierce that and say okay, what is that? is that just a gut check? but i do think it's out there. >> you know, steve, we've talked to campaigns before. i talked to your campaign four
years ago. and you usually can tell when campaigns are whistling past the graveya graveyard. the romney people this past weekend were ecstatic. they are scared to death of these polls. they're frustrated because they're ahead among independents, but they're not winning these swing state polls. but they're ecstatic about the crowds. and their response. and actually, i had two of romney's top advisers say we looked at romney on stage and they were, like, who is this guy, and where has he been? >> well, i think if you talk to people in the romney campaign, they are confident. they feel a wave out there. they look at these polls. they think they're in striking distance. but it's not faux enthusiasm. they think they have a real chance to win this election. and i look back to the 2004 campaign which i was a part of. and going into that final weekend, if you gave everybody truth serum, you would marginally have rather been us than the kerry campaign.
but we went into election day on that race, so we were very uncertain that we would be victorious. coming out the other side of it. very, very close election. >> richard, the comparisons -- and you've compared this to 2004. >> all the way. >> i will tell you, the comparisons, nearly identically. of george w. bush going into that friday, the bush people concerned, and a lot of people in the media believing that kerry was going to win. most people believing kerry was going to win. and the incumbent, though, stubbornly held on. and the obama people think that's going to happen this year, too. and you look at the polls, and we're about to do the state-by-state polls, it looks like they're going to hold on by a point or two. >> i was cwith the kerry people covering them for "newsweek." they were within striking distance. the exit polls were very clear for them. literally people had open bottles of champagne in their boston headquarters. and the other point was that they didn't see it coming. they didn't see that there was a different model being worked
out, especially in the turnout operation. and i do think there's a stealth campaign that is happening. it's very hard to see on the national polls. it's very hard unless you are one of those microtargeted groups. you know, there is -- when i tried putting together that 2008 book, "renegade," i said to president obama, then candidate obama -- >> now available in paperback. >> -- i said we're going to do this inside story. he said what happens if there's no secret story, what happens if we just had a plan and we executed on it. and they have the plan. >> i talked to the obama folks yesterday. they tell me that they have turnout models for romney that are 2004 level. they do a very generous turnout model for him that they think, you know, can sort of protect them against some sort of surprise. that's what you're talking about, that they won't be in a position where they don't see this coming. we'll see. >> and again, i think unlike even 2004, i haven't looked at
the numbers, but you keep hearing that there are less undecideds this year than before. you combine the early voting and the small number of turnout, the small number of undecided voters, that means that 1980 is not going to happen. there's not going to be a massive wave. but if you look at these polls, even if there is a one or two-point shift romney's direction, we could be up very late into the night. >> the problem is early voting as well that we might want to get to. but first, back to the battlegrounds where the election will be decided. in iowa, the latest "des moines register" poll has president obama with a five-point lead over mitt romney. florida -- >> really quickly, let's talk iowa very quickly. steve schmidt, the romney people, very dejected by this poll. it's the one time i've heard them in the past couple weeks being dejected. "the des moines register," they know their state. their polls are accurate. >> absolutely. that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence on the republican side. you know, i think that
republicans understand that iowa is a tough state for us. >> all right. let's go to florida. romney has the advantage there, polling six points ahead in a new "tampa bay times"/"miami herald" poll. in new hampshire, a wmur poll has the race tied at 47%-47%. >> steve, what about that? >> when you see an incumbent president at 47% tied, that indicates to me that that state could well wind up in the mitt romney column. >> let's go to another state. and the big question, mika, is whether this poll is an outlier. >> or something's going on here. 47%-47% tied. in pennsylvania according to a "tribune-review" poll, pennsylvania has naught gone republican since 1988. >> david gregory, they say this is a republican-leaning poll, a republican-leaning newspaper and this poll is not to be believed. there were polls, though, last week out that showed a three-point race. this race a lot tighter than it should be. >> that's the point. one of the obama advisers said
look, we're going to have to take a haircut from some of these strong states in 2008. it doesn't mean we're going to lose them, but if it's a three, four-point, it makes sense if he's looking for some kind of backup plan for ohio where i haven't seen any poll polling. i think there have been a couple that show him ahead, but mostly he's been behind in ohio here. if there's anything showing him tight, they want to get in there. >> to virginia. the latest nbc poll has the president up by one point, 48%-47%. >> richard wolffe, of all the polls i've seen, this is the one that concerns me the most. i've got to say, the nbc polls have been -- the nbc polls have been a bit tougher on romney than some other polls. but i have yet to see a poll that shows mitt romney two, three points ahead in virginia. maybe it's out there. i haven't seen a lot of them. >> and this gets to the heart of the obama campaign's theory of demographics. that virginia has changed. just over the last four years.
you know, we can argue about enthusiasm, but they say countervailing to the enthusiasm is the demographic shift in a place like virginia, i'd be worried about it. >> oh, my lord. >> t.j., do you have the freddie fender picture? we're going to show. we got together some of the best engineers at nasa to do a simulation of what this would look like. >> i don't want to see it. >> by the way -- >> you had to have actually had one at some point in the '70s, early '80s? >> in florida. '70s, florida. shorts and a mustache. >> i grow the mustache if romney loses florida -- >> and flip-flops. >> -- north carolina or virginia. >> okay. >> david axelrod grows his mustache if they lose minnesota, pennsylvania or michigan. >> he says his 'stache is safe. >> this is how i will look, though, the morning after. >> oh! oh! >> wow!
>> david axelrod. >> axelrod looks worse. you at least look like an identifiable person in a certain time period. not this era. but axelrod, could you have gotten a worse picture of axelrod? >> i look like a mix between ron burgundy and carlos slim. i'm a really big deal. >> let's go to ohio. >> you know what san diego means in german. go ahead. let's go to ohio. in ohio, the president's holding a two-point lead according to a "columbus dispatch" poll, leading 50%-48%. that's also a really good poll, isn't it? >> yeah, that's a good poll for him. he is at 50%. that's where he needs to be. if he's at 47%, i think he's in a lot of trouble. but 50%, he looks good. >> i'll tell you, another poll that's concerning me as a republican, "the denver post" poll showing the president still leading mitt romney in colorado. it's within the margin of error. but i'll tell you what, this is
the thing that is driving republicans mad, david, despite the enthusiasm, despite feeling good, despite the independents on their side. >> yep. >> they seem to be a point or two behind in every single poll. >> well, let me ask you this question. what sort of underlies that? in 2004, i always felt like whether this was actually the case or not, what got bush over the finish line was the feeling that he had answered the fundamental question, which is are we safer as a country? >> right. >> and in a lot of the anti-war sentiment didn't really crest until the following january, frankly, with the british white paper on wmd when richard and i were covering the white house. here, we know that there's not a feeling that obama has answered that fundamental question, which is are we doing better, and yet, there doesn't seem to be enough sentiment against him to say we have to switch. >> you know, it seems to me, and i steve will know this better than me, it seemed like he needed the second punch after
the first debate. he needed -- it's like he set up. it's like, you know, frazier setting up with a hard right jab. and steve, that left hook never came from behind to put him over the top. i'm not saying he's not going to win. i'm just saying, he needed a one, two punch. and i just feel like he didn't close that deal. >> there's no doubt that the first debate totally reset the race. but if you look at the last week with the hurricanes, with all the coverage, that momentum that mitt romney had which was reaching a fever pitch, that romney's got the momentum, romney can win, romney's pulling ahead, it all dissipated overnight. >> speaking of joe frazier, it was like frazier/ali. he won the first fight, and he lost the second and the third. i mean, in fact, in the third debate, mitt romney looked nervous, looked a little flush, and looked unsure of himself. >> and here's what else happened. in 2004, john kerry won the first debate, no question. >> no doubt. >> what also happened, bin laden
came out with that tape. it reminded voters that no matter how well the framework had been constructed, george bush was responsible for iraq and therefore every problem america had, there were real problems. there were real threats. >> why do you think barack obama killed him? he didn't want a last-minute tape helping another republican. it's a joke, people! it's a joke! >> okay. >> it's a joke! >> the hurricane reminded people that president obama was not responsible for every problem. >> steve did make a point that there is a lot of separation and fatigue with the president, a lot of anxiety about the economy and where we're going. >> you want to do this story? >> i do, actually. >> do you really? >> is that okay? >> i guess so. >> okay. it's out now. >> seriously. you want to do the story. >> i do. >> okay, go ahead. >> you could have asked me more quietly. we've been talking about -- >> if it makes you feel good the day before the election. go ahead. >> what? what? >> are we on the air, actually? >> yes, we're on the air.
weekend when the miami-dade elections department closed its doors. the center was shut down for an hour until officials were given permission to extend in-person absentee voting. democrats have now filed a federal lawsuit to force the state's republican-controlled government to extend early voting hours in south florida. >> why the sigh? why the sigh? >> i have three words, benghazi, benghazi, benghazi. >> oh, god. >> i'm wandering around my ranch house muttering the words "benghazi." seriously, are we really going here? >> yes, we are. >> benghazi, benghazi, benghazi, benghazi, benghazi, benghazi, benghazi. >> you brought it to the table. you have no filter. >> if you want to do this whole thing -- >> what, is this not a story, david? >> ripped from the headlines. >> it's absolutely a story. if we've got evidence of this and it's something i think we have to watch very carefully over the next couple days. >> thank you.
>> and by the way, i think the benghazi issue, there are real questions about benghazi, serious questions. he said benghazi. >> benghazi, why do you want to cover up benghazi? benghazi, benghazi, benghazi. say something. benghazi. >> i'm not connecting the two. >> stop. >> i wanted to add context to the benghazi man over here. >> steve schmidt, is the story i just read a story? >> benghazi. >> kind of. is it possible that a local elections official in florida screwed up the early voting? yes. is it part of some big, giant republican conspiracy out there? absolutely not. >> did i say that? >> so what happened in benghazi? what do you think happened? >> did i say that there was some sort of conspiracy? >> no, no. but people obviously jump to that. >> surely we can all agree -- >> we certainly can.
>> -- that republicans and democrats, whatever your preference, they all should be able to vote. those lines are offensive wherever they are, whoever is responsible. lines should not happen for several hours just to allow people to do their citizen's right of voting. >> i agree. >> even with benghazi. >> i agree just like i agree that we really need to get to the bottom of what happened in benghazi. richard wolffe, thank you so much for being with us. >> you're welcome. >> steve schmidt, are you going to do coverage tomorrow night? >> with you, yep. >> not with me, my friend. >> not with you. >> but you'll be with me tomorrow morning. all right. >> go ahead, just take it all. >> david gregory, i want to just thank you for having the courage for asking david plouffe about benghazi yesterday. >> i thought it was important. >> thank you. >> yep. coming up next, who do we have? >> nbc political news director, chuck todd. why don't you stay. thank you. thank you. we'll make you feel more uncomfortable. don't worry, we have much more where this came from.
you have to look really hard to see that it's "morning joe" blend because of the way the packaging is made. >> it's horrible. >> it is in your local starbucks. >> they changed it to the white back. thank you, starbucks. >> with white writing on it. >> by the way, can we get the shot of chuck todd over here? the last time -- >> no words, okay? >> we don't want anything flying around. >> don't flip us off. >> the last time we had this shot, something bad happened. keep your finger down! >> gregory was with me. i blame david. >> what's wrong with you? >> chuck's a pointer. >> he is a pointer. sometimes with the wrong finger. also, mike murphy's going to be with us in a few minutes. we're talking to senator john mccain. also this morning, at 9:00 a.m. -- >> i forgot to tell you about this. >> what? >> we're going to the nbc experience. >> i'm not going to be there. >> yes, you are. right here at 30 rock for a book signing. >> do they have chuck todd buttons over there? >> i'll sign a book for you and i'll give you a button.
you can wear it. >> also benghazi. we'll break it down for you. more "morning joe" when we return. humans -- even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems. namely, other humans. which is why, at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy?
okay. now, we have nbc news chief white house correspondent and host of "the daily rundown." watching you all weekend, you're so good with all the numbers. >> he's got a command center. >> it's a fun studio. you guys ought to go in there tomorrow. tomorrow, aren't we all -- we're one big family for 25 hours or 6 hours. you should go play in the studio. >> will you have us? >> yes. >> yesterday david gregory goes, and now let's go over to the
command center. >> command center. >> and chuck laughs the first time. if we're going to spend that much money on a command center -- >> we've got to say yes, we are here. >> how about go to the command center. >> go with it. you've got to act like you're at nasa. >> admiral gregory. >> knowledge cave. >> a knowledge cave. and a white lab coat for chuck. >> i almost said drop zone. >> so this is how it goes. >> mike murphy's here. >> now over to the command center. and seriously, chuck goes like this, pffft. >> chuck, i think that's very transparent. >> we want to make everybody feel as if they're welcome. >> chuck, we've got one thing. and we are going to drive it like a nail. floba. >> benghazi. >> voter suppression. >> somebody brings up voter suppression, benghazi three times and call me in the morning. we've got what we're calling on the set of "morning joe,"
>> yes, sir. >> and what historians will look back in 50 years and say we were calling on the set of "morning joe." >> this is going to be stupid. >> we had a hard split. you talk to all the romney people, talk to them especially on saturday, they say we're going to win this. no whistling past the graveyard. they were saying it. but you look at every one of these polls, your head and the data tells you barack obama is going to win. >> that everything, whatever move happened right at the end, it moved there. if you were to go back in the recent past and say, so this is what happened for bush, right, everything moved to the final weekend, and it turned out. the one time that you saw a move in one direction in the final weekend and the other guy win was '76. carter/ford. ford had the momentum at the end. >> he did. >> it was a very tight race, but carter won. and it was the same thing. similar campaign. basically spend 60 days calling into question whether jimmy carter was ready to be
president. >> ford was moving. >> ford was moving. and he may have -- the last state, gallup had him, i'm quoting gallup so be careful. gallup, i think it was the sunday before, was the first time ford led. you know, my old boss, doug bailey, said he was doing the ford campaign, he said that was the worst thing that happened to ford. the minute people thought, oh, ford can win? they went, wait a minute. >> they took a third look. >> they said, ooh, i forgot, we've got to kick nixon to the curb one more time. >> yeah, i'm not so sure. the only problem with these polls are, they tell us exactly what would have happened last thursday. maybe yesterday. and i agree, if the election were held at the end of last week, i think obama would have won. now we're within the margin of error. >> what breaks through? there's nothing breaking through. here they come, there they go, same message. >> ceiling. just is any undecided going to go to obama or has he maxed out? >> this is what's in our poll, all the undecided did not -- they looked like they could go
obama and split at least 50/50 obama, if not more. >> just on the demographic question, the percentage of the white vote, right? is it '72? is it '74? we have very big turnout. we do generous turnout for romney similar to 2004. but whether he's going to get two-thirds of the independent vote, we don't think that's going to happen. even if you have minorities and younger voters not as fired up, you've got to see this shift going on in the electorate. >> how about asking it this way. think about this. you covered bush. so you know he was obsessed with hispanic votes. >> yeah. >> if mitt romney got the hissman vote that george w. bush got in 2004, the percentage -- >> this race would be over. >> right. >> it would be over. >> exactly. if he were doing bush numbers there, he'd be in a lot better shape and we'd be nevada which we ought to be doing. >> actually, if he were doing mccain numbers with hispanics. >> the race is close enough.
>> are you serious? holy cow. >> what does the white vote look like? >> the white vote is the secret to ohio. this is the interesting thing. romney is performing so much worse with white voters in ohio than he is even in other states he's in trouble with. >> how about white men. >> across the board. you took romney's white vote chair in virginia where he's tied and there's a lot of worry we may not get there in virginia and you apply that to ohio, he'd be ahead in ohio. you have to think, does ohio mean a little more which often happens in statistics, or have they turned ohio into a pennsylvania-type state. >> is this the future for republican candidates' future to learn the lesson of this year, if mitt romney loses, if somebody is trying to goad you to bash hispanics in iowa, do you take the bait? >> they wrote a column called "the coming ice age." here's the problem, though. if romney wins, it will be
forgotten. if romney loses, there will be a huge debate between the priests and the mathematicians. mathematicians are going to say hey, guess what, if we don't compete in 25% of the country, damn hard to win. the priests will say no, no, we never said kenyan socialist in the debate. that was the problem. glow in the dark bumper stickers. >> benghazi, benghazi, benghazi. >> exactly. >> and kenya. >> almost sounds like dirga dirga. >> you suddenly see a conspiracy. >> i don't want to do the obituary here. i think romney's still in the hunt. >> i do, too. what chuck just said was stunning to me. if romney even had mccain's hispanic percentage, he'd win. >> but i guess part of my question was about which model do you believe? what is it that the romney campaign believes about who is coming out and what the electorate looks like that is so different than what the obama team believes, or do they really -- do they believe something different now? >> this is the younger cohort
where obama win 2-1 is not going to be as motivated so they'll shrink a little bit and won't turn out as much. the obama one is we're going to get all that and more. >> here's an easy way to look at it. in '08, younger voters, 18 to 24, i think, outnumbered 65-plus. they were both right at -- one was 17% of the electorate, one was 16%. this time it's going to be this way. the question is, is it 18/15, 65-plus, or is it 17/16. 17/16, obama. >> chuck, you played with your turnout models yesterday. >> yes. >> i thought it was fascinating. talk about on ohio especially. >> say that again. >> you talked about ohio was six points -- >> right, party i.d. so we had a party i.d., if you basically did party i.d., if you took the '04 and '08 and sort of average it had, and the party i.d. issue, it isn't something that is -- it moves more than people realize. >> but it's static.
>> it's not as static. but if you went ahead and did it with our poll and applied it, a six-point lead gets down to three. but the president's still at 50. and this is a party i.d. that would be more republican than '08, but more democrat than '04 which honestly, that's probably what ohio's going to be. it's going to be somewhere in between the two. >> how important is the poll that shows the vast majority of people like the way the president handled the hurricane? i mean, does it play into -- does it move someone who's still undecided? >> look, i think -- >> toward romney? >> i think that you see a case for government -- and don't forget, the role in how much government we want in this election i think is a critical issue. >> right. >> so here's the president, you know, with his actions making the case for what government does. here is a republican in chris christie outspoken saying we need government. we need what only the federal government can provide. you have a republican and a democrat working together. i think it just makes people feel good. it's what we want to see.
>> if you're someone who doesn't necessarily think big government's a great idea, you feel that way until you need the government, and sandy would give you an example as to -- >> only the federal government has the scale to help solve. >> you don't like it till you need it. >> i learned a couple lessons in 2000 and 20004 where in 2004, i was skeptical that the bin laden tape would move people because, you know, we live this stuff so much that we don't think one little event in the end will do it. in 2000, it was a real shocker. i am stunned that george w. bush's dui story, friday before the weekend, kept a couple million evangelicals over at home or away from. i'm stunned, but that's -- for people sitting here going oh, people wouldn't decide based on one event the final weekend, they do. >> it's hard to gain particularly when undecided voters think, they've got their own logic. i learned a little secret which is the ugly little secret of a lot of polling is it's a noise meter. whatever's in front of them at
the moment coming through television the loudest. that's why we had a week where trump was going to be the president of the united states. teaching gary bussey to work the snow cone machine. >> that was a big week. >> it was pins and needles all the way. there could have been an explosion. so now sandy, the president just being on center stage was worth something. and the romney guys would say it was also an opportunity cost. you know, it just froze the election at a time when they were moving. the question is, are they moving right now? >> tom made a great point over the weekend. he was talking about -- and we were all so many places, i can't remember where he said this -- but he talked about there is such uneasiness about both of them, and what you just described in 2000 and 2004 i'd argue by the end of the campaign, we got to that neither one of them felt like the perfect answer. that you're so easily moved by an event. i mean, think about it. debates moved. debates normally don't move. well, why? because there's been this uneasiness with obama. well, why did it move -- why did
sandy move this? because there's been uneasiness about romney. so the fact that the electorate is a little -- is so about both candidates a little bit. >> i also think people need encouragement or could be subject to discouragement in the final analysis how they vote. it's hard to make up your mind. >> right. david gregory, chuck todd, mike murphy, thank you all for joining us. >> thank you. straight ahead, senator john mccain join says the conversatijoins the conversation when "morning joe" continues.
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all right. looking ahead to tomorrow night, election night, as the returns are coming in, joe and i will be hosting a special roundtable discussion at the 92nd street "y" in upper manhattan. go to 92y.org for tickets. we also have information on mojo.msnbc.com. that's tomorrow night at 8:15 p.m. hope to see you there. should be a fantastic evening. up next, we'll bring in senator john mccain for his thoughts on tomorrow's election and what the candidates are thinking about now 24 hours out. keep it right here on "morning joe." ♪
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it is 46 past the hour. welcome back to "morning joe." and joining us now from boston, republican senator from arizona, senator john mccain. senator, thanks for being on the show this morning. >> thanks, mika. >> so you're one of the few people on the face of the earth who would know what it feels like to be sitting in this position 24 hours out. can you describe it? >> well, it's a lot of tension. and obviously, it's a lot of excitement. people are fired up. in my case, i think there was also a bit of a dose of reality in that we could read the polls and knew that it was going to be very difficult to win, but that didn't change our enthusiasm or
our going all out until the last minute. you know, i'll never forget being in the '96 campaign with bob dole, and somebody had the great idea that we would go -- i think it was 72 hours without stopping. i still remember ending up at the 5 & diner at 3:00 a.m. in phoenix, arizona. i remember thinking, what the hell is this all about? >> where am i? >> what is going on? what do you see, senator, as somebody that's been through this, we were talking to steve schmidt before, trying to figure this out. you look at the numbers. your head tells you barack obama's going to win. you look at a lot of the rallies. and i'm not just talking about republicans. i'm talking about political correspondents. like jeff zelling of "the new york times" and mark halperin with "time" saying boy, the enthusiasm sure seems to be on mitt romney's side right now. >> oh, i think it is. as you know, i've been traveling all over the country. there's incredible enthusiasm out there.
how that translates, i'm not exactly sure. but it's bound to be encouraging for mitt. i'll tell you something else that's going on. this time i was in your hometown three or four times during this campaign. mainly because i loved to be in pensacola. >> of course. >> it's a great town. >> we are seeing an anger level amongst the veterans about this benghazi thing that i have never seen before. >> i wanted to ask you about that, senator. you actually called -- you want a special committee set up to investigate the benghazi attacks. and you called for that this weekend. talk about that. >> we just have to have a select committee like we had with watergate, iran-contra and those. there's just too many conflicting stories. there's too much back-and-forth and different sources. and you know, four brave americans did die. and that really requires that level of involvement because frankly, i don't think many people in this country would
trust just an administration investigation into it. so you're seeing some anger and a lot of enthusiasm out there on the part of veterans and active-duty military. now, how much of that actually matters? i don't know. but you know, joe, there's 1.6 million veterans in the state of florida. and i've never seen them as fired up as they are now. >> senator mccain, it's willie geist. you've got access to information the rest of us don't have access to. so based on what you know about this benghazi story, details you've seen, do you suspect that this is a question of incompetence from the obama administration, or do you think there's some kind of a cover-up at play here? >> willie, first of all, i don't have any inside information except from people i hear from, you know, who are on the ground or involved in it and through, frankly, off-the-record statements. but what i do know is that it was terribly mishandled. telling the american people that this was a spontaneous
demonstration caused by a hateful video is just -- it doesn't pass the smell test. and then for seven weeks, we've been asking questions and haven't gotten a single answer. you know, we are a branch of government that has our responsibilities as well. has o responsibilities as well. so i think, also, they're starting to have a little back fighting amongst the different agencies of government, a little bit of cya is going on. but, frankly, i think the president should have, a long time ago, gone on television and said, look, here is what happened. here is what happened to the american people and obviously he hasn't done that. >> so it sounds, senator, from your answer that it goes beyond incompetence, that they're hiding the truth from political gain. is that what you are suggesting? >> willie, i'm suggesting it's eith either. i'm suggesting it's either gross incompetence and stove piping, in other words, agencies not sharing agencies with other
agencies or bureaucrats trying to avoid responsibility. as you know, when something like this ooccurs, that always happens. or they've just decide d to run out the clock, and then maybe have a full and complete investigation. i don't know. but it's reprehensible. whatever it is, it's not acceptable. four brave americans died on august 15th. there was a meeting in the consulate saying, look, we're in serious trouble hear. al qaeda is coming back here and they sent that back to the state department and nothing happened? why weren't there forces in the region ready to react? there are so many questions and, of course, this whole thing of a spontaneous demonstration fed by a hateful video simply was not true. and it's very disappointing to me and very sad. as you may know, i was in benghazi with chris stevens. i was with him in tripoli july 7
on election day. thousands of libyans say, thank you, america. thank you, chris stevens. they loved him. they rejected islamists. that's what makes this story all the even more sad. >> mike barnicle? >> off this very discussion, and begin your unique role, give us your assessment of the coverage of this campaign with regard to benghazi and the overlap of the presidential campaign. how do you think it's been covered by the media? >> well, obviously, and i don't claim to be objective, i don't think enough. i understand today we find out there was a "60 minutes" portion that was left out of i guess it was pelley's interview with the president. but one of the things we always do knee jerk is to blame the media. and i love to do it. i love to beat up, especially on it this program. >> it's a lot of fun. we're like a big -- my head is
like a big softball for you, senator. go, baby. go. >> but it's a nonproductive exercise. i mean, it makes you feel good, but it's not productive. the point is we've got to try to get a good, solid, credible investigation of this. we owe it to their families. >> all right, senator john mccain, thank you very much. we will speak to you. >> thanks for having me on. ahead this morning, obama's deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter. we'll be right back.
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we're going to try to stump some political junkies with questions from bing elections. do you know where your polling place is? maybe somewhere around my house. mine's just, right over that way. well you can find out exactly where it is using bing elections. it's a good day for politics. which way do you lean politically? conservative. republican. well, using the bing news selector you can find news from whichever way you lean. (together) social on this side, financial. which party is currently predicted to win a majority in the senate? the republicans? would you make a bet on that? no. are you chicken?
good morning. it's 8:00 on the east coast. 5:00 a.m. on the west coast. time to wake up, everybody, as you take a live look at new york city. back with the sunset we have mike barnicle and mark halperin and we continue with the aftermath of hurricane sandy. today marks one full week since sandy came ashore killing at least 110 people and leaving a path of destruction that reshaped entire stretches of the northeast coastline. the cover of "new york" magazine shows the impact on manhattan alone. much of the southern hatch of the island in pitch black. this morning nearly a million people in new jersey remain without power or heat as overnight temperatures dip near freezing. as cold weather sets in, new
york city mayor michael bloomberg says as many as 40,000 people may need to find new places to live. that is a daunting task for a city known for its tight housing market. the announcement set up the potential return of fema trailers like those used in the wake of hurricane katrina. gas lines stretched through the weekend. some stations are now using gas-powered generators to pump the fuel out of the ground. new york governor andrew cuomo says it could be several more days before the region's fuel shortage is resolved. in new york city where 145,000 households are still without power, yesterday's mayrathon, o course, was canceled for the first time in 40 years. that didn't stop, though, hundreds of runners from showing up where the race was supposed to begin in staten island, hit hard there. instead of a marathon, they literally ran a relief effort, jogging through neighborhoods to help dig out debris and offer supplies. and, willie, you spent time on
staten island over the weekend as well. >> yeah, i went down on saturday. i went over there. i hopped on the staten island ferry. caught the bus and these are the pictured i took. they're not professional pictures. i just took them with my own camera. i notice d two things. one is that television does not do it justice. this was a neighborhood strewn with trash because people have given up on their houses and are now emptying them out, throwing everything into the street. that's the first thing. you have boats in the street, houses hollowed out. loss of life. >> this is incredible. >> but, also, the way they're working shifts, at least three or four cooking for everybody, people driving around in pickup trucks handing out sandwiches and drinks and i didn't see a lot of heads hanging. they saw this as a job. okay, we have to clean up this neighborhood. we have to rebuild it, but the reality is when they come back interest this they have to find new places to live, a lot of
them. in the immediate future they have to find someone to stay with or stay in a shelter. that's a football field there by the beach. the field turf rolled up like carpeting. it was an eye opener but i will say if anyone is thinking about helping, all you have to do is just go. >> show up. >> you don't have to sign up. >> staten island always seems to be forgotten by people in manhattan. i think there are some people in manhattan that were slow to recognize that. >> definitely. >> and it's very disturbing. but, my gosh, it's devastating. people aren't hanging their heads. >> they're not. they're working together. neighbors are helping neighbors throw stuff out in the street. i will say if you're thinking about it, just go. it doesn't have to be staten island. go to the jersey shore, long beach, long island. if you see a guy trying to move something out of his house, walk up to him and help him. it's very simple. >> my husband who works for channel 7 spent the day in the far rockaways and says it's the same situation. add to that the desperation of
people who can't move, older people, people who are in higher buildings. how can they get their medicine? so there is a lot to be done. complete and utter devastation and desperation still how many days out. >> what's the attitude out there? >> hurting. people hurting. and sleeping in their cars waiting for gasoline. sleeping in their cars because their homes are gone. and it's just, you know, you go a couple miles left or a couple miles right and it changes like drastically from an untouched neighborhood to a neighborhood that is completely devastated where the people are still shell-shocked and don't know what to do. they don't know what to do. so even, as you said, showing up and lending a hand, putting your arm around someone, listening to them, is half the battle sometimes to help someone get through the day. a lot of people who are elderly or infirm and can't get to their medicine, they were not prepared
at all and there are potentially worse situations to come. this is going to drag out. >> it is. and, of course, mika, all of this comes right on the heels -- right before the presidential election. we're 24 hours away before voting begins. there is also a political dynamic to this. >> right. the timing dynamic politically as well. >> there's a timing dynamic as well. mark, i have heard from republicans that are very close to mitt romney, that are tied in that campaign, and some have actually said it publicly that this election froze in place their momentum two, three days. haley barbour actually said that publicly. carl may have come out and said something as well. a lot of people close to him inside were saying this on friday, saying, you know, our internals just stopped.
>> the crowds are huge. >> the crowds are huge. you followed romney and said the crowds -- you told me what everybody else is telling me, romney's crowds are absolutely electric. >> i saw the president in ohio and governor romney in ohio over the weekend and there's no 0 question that governor romney's crowds are big. the president drew big crowds this weekend, too, including saturday night in virginia with bill clinton. but there's no question that one of the things the romney people concedes on is the potential they have more enthusiasm. plenty of enthusiasm for the president, too, but there's a lot of enthusiasm for mitt romney and for beating the president on that side. >> and people get upset when you say this but i get to talk to reporters. "the new york times" great reporter talked about how the energy is on the side of romney. i think that may be the challenger versus the incumbent, but you don't have that excitement from everybody that's been out there that the president's rally, this past weekend, at least.
>> saturday -- i have to keep my days street. in a cleveland suburb, one of the swing counties in cleveland, the president did an event in a high school gym. the gym was packed. a great event. but it wasn't -- it wasn't what i would have expected the last weekend in cleveland, the last time he goes to cleveland for him to do. the president's team has plenty of enthusiasm. they clearly have a strong turnout operation. their micro targeting efforts are much more sophisticated than they've led to us believe. we'll find out later. if you're republican and you want something to hang this on, enthusiasm. go to the storm, you're right. plenty of republicans close to the romney campaign who are saying basically if we lose this, it will be because of the storm. there's no way to know. there are plenty who believe that could have been the moment in which the election was decided by blotting out their momentum. >> they started fretting about it when they saw polls, the movement stop on thursday or friday. the president was seen with
chris christie doing a great job. the president, one of his great failures over the past four years, even if partisans don't like it, is effectively being able to reach ut to the other side for whatever reason and the americans saw the president and chris christie on the jersey shore coming together to get things done, the way politicians used to get things done. and it helped. >> it's probably one more -- i think maybe more than helps. it's one more item we will never be able to get to post election if governor romney wins. the christie factor, the storm factor. it gave the president the platt the form to appear in front of the country, not just here in this battered area, as the president of the united states, as a leader, someone who will get something -- >> not as a guy running 30-second commercials. >> hands-on, tangible stuff. >> romney versus obama. suddenly it was president obama and governor christie and politically for the president it happened in a state where you
had one of the preeminent republicans making that an even more poignant moment when they embraced. >> even his -- even governor christie's statement yesterday while -- that he was going to vote for governor romney was a powerful statement in and of itself and what he said about the president of the united states. >> no question. >> more basic than just that, we said from the beginning, every day the topic is not the president's economic record. it's a good day for the president. and we weren't talking about tax returns or bain capital but something besides president obama's record on the economy, and that was not the way the romney campaign wanted to close. >> and, mika, the romney people expected, and i think i expected, and a lot of other republicans expected, and a lot of pundits and pollsters expect this had to tighten up and romney to move ahead in some of the swing states. that just hasn't happened. you look at swing state polls that have come out. some that are tight.
pennsylvania is tight. a michigan one that's tight. but overall the president's up -- the president is stubbornly holding on. to paraphrase him, he's clinging to a two-point lead in every poll. >> we're 24 hours away from the election. can you believe this? new polling offering a snapshot of just how close this race is. and in a general election matchup of likely voters three major polls all have it as a statistical tie. >> look at that. look at that. >> according to the nbc news/"wall street journal" survey president obama holds a slim 48% to 47% lead. the same poll taken eight years ago strikingly similar. incumbent president george w. bush held the same 48% to 47% lead over john kerry the day before the election. before that election. in battleground states including colorado, ohio, virginia, florida, and new hampshire
president obama has a slight advantage. he leads romney 50% to 46%. when asked which candidate is best to improve the economy, romney leads by the president by five points. that's a closer margin than it was in mid-october. however, when asked which candidate is best for the middle class, the president has a double digit lead, 51% to 40%. there's good news for obama on his handling of hurricane sandy. 67% say they approve of the way the president dealt with the disaster hast week. >> that's showing up in the national polls, mika. i think it's also showing up in the battleground state polls where you have people who weren't affected by the storm but who saw the president's handling of the storm and standing there with chris christie in what could be one of the two iconic moments of this campaign. >> that's an interesting symbol to get back to it. back to the battlegrounds where tomorrow's election had will ultimately be decided. iowa, the latest "des moines register" poll has president
obama with a five-point lead over mitt romney. but in florida -- >> by the way -- by the way -- go back to that one for just a second. >> back to iowa. >> watt with a poll of all the polls is out, this is the only poll romney people have shown despair. they don't believe a lot of the ohio polls. this one, this one really surprised them this week. they really believe d they woul win iowa. >> look at florida. romney has the advantage polling six points ahead. in a new tampa bay times/bay news, miami herald poll. what is that? the race is tied in new hampshire and pennsylvania. according to a "tribune-review" poll new hampshire hasn't gone republican since 1988. >> this came out yesterday. democrats say this is a republican leaning poll and also it's outside -- is this an outliar or is this the
direction? >> there hasn't been enough polling there and, again, pennsylvania is a weird state. there's no early polling, only late advertise iing there. governor romney did a late night event there that was pretty big. i agree with mike. i think it's unlikely mitt romney will win this. i think it will be in a landslide. i don't think he'll win pennsylvania without the midwestern states. that would be gravy. bill clinton is spending the day there and he is a big asset. >> i think the obama people are confident in other swing states for the reason they may be a little scared in pennsylvania right now because no early voting. there's been no campaigning there. they didn't rip mitt romney to shreds like they said they were going to do to john hide lman back in may when they said they were going to carry him limb to limb. so pennsylvania is one state, mika, that is controlled. in virginia the latest nbc poll has the president up by one point. if i'm on mitt romney's team,
willie, that concerns me a lot. he should be up by a couple points. >> and take a look at ohio. the president holds a two-point lead according to a "columbus dispatch" poll. the denver post finds the president leading mitt romney 47% to 45%. >> another reason to be disturbed. mitt romney should be ahead in colorado. i'm just saying, he should be ahead in colorado. he should be ahead in havevirgi. he should be ahead in north carolina. he should be ahead in florida. he is according to "the miami herald" poll. virginia and colorado are two states that give me pause for the romney camp. >> especially virginia. let's pause for a moment and appreciate how close this race is. we went through ten polls all either tied or within the margin of error. >> today you can look at the polls. it's okay. >> they matter. this really comes down to ohio. that poll was two points. the president has had some polls that showed him with a little
bit bigger lead. where are you hearing that race is right now? >> it depend on how you model it. where can republicans look for hope, a lot of these polls the president's ahead but governor romney is doing well with independents. and whoever wins independents in ohio will win probably, almost certainly, and i think -- i think that the president -- >> wait, wait, wait. let me stop you there. let me stop you there. because every republican i've talked to that knows how to run campaigns say if you win independents by five or six points, you win ohio. in every single race. and yet they're up in a lot of polls by double digits among independents and they're losing ohio. this is what's driving republicans mad. they see this huge win among independents but are still losing. explain that. >> it's how you model the electorate. after the denver debate was the more people think the president -- how many more people think the president is going to win? i don't think there's a poll yet
i've seen where more people think governor romney is going to win. but the gap is narrowed. it's moved back a little bit and in general since the storm but governor romney, i think, is where he needs to be in terms of the psychology. you want to go into the last weekend into election day where people think you can win. you don't want to think -- you don't want anyone to think it's over because people want to vote for the winner. the independent number is one thing that republicans have gotten out there and talked a lot about and i can't get my arms around it completely. i do know if the electorate is a lot like the 2008 electorate, the president is going to win overwhelmly. but that's not going to happen. ohio elected portman. wisconsin elected and then kept in office scott walker in the last two years. so there's a lot of reasons to think the electorate is going to be somewhat different and maybe substantially different. >> i don't know if you saw, but speaking of ohio chuck it hadded to was going through nbc/marist
poll had the president ahead by six. then he changed the model to be a split between '08 and '04. high shy a three-point race. columbus dispatch is a two-point race. mike, as we throw the numbers around, right now as a practicing politician of 20 years, if i'm betting, i'm betting on the president because every poll is lined up for the president. that said, you think about 1980 where everybody, every elite in manhattan and washington was sure jimmy carter was going to win. i don't care what they say now. lack at frank reynolds saying what the hell is going on out there? no one saw the reagan ref laugs coming. no one saw it coming. revisionists, nobody saw it coming. when we come back, obama deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter joining us on set, "washington post" columnist eugene robinson. and mort zuckerman whose newspaper's endorsement caught some people off guard.
>> they endorsed president obama, right? because they did four years ago. here is somebody who has never endorsed, bill karins. >> yeah, bill. on the heels of sandy, another big storm coming. i don't have time to play with you as much as i'd like to. out here on democracy plaza, this is nbc news' big setup the next two days, we're also watching the storm and thankfully it will not impact us here as we go through election night. all eyes on the recovery zone. the storm is diving down into arkansas. let me take you through the forecast. for today some minor concerns, some strong thunderstorms possible from houston over to new orleans but it's really the impacts once it gets down to the southeast starting tuesday afternoon and evening. on election day we'll be watching the heaviest rains setting up along the southeast coast. that's when the storm will begin to intensify. again, at this point, not going to affect the turnout for the election too much. that mixed in in wisconsin shouldn't have an impact. once the storm intense fis and
becomes a full-blown nor'easter off the virginia coastline and into the delmarva, snow inland, the possibility of heavy snow in the mountains, the green and the white mountains, maybe the adirondacks of upstate new york. virginia, too, interior sections. as far as the coastal areas that are recovering from sandy, a storm surge of three to five feet. there's no dunes protecting it. winds gusting. some of those structures that are barely holding on, unfortunately, it looks like they may get hit hard and more additional damage. snow and wind, we could see power outages so some people just got it restored, you may lose it all over again. again, this will only be about 0.01 of the impact sandy did. this is an area of the country with little protection after what sandy did only a week ago. amazing we're going to do this all over again. of course this comes the day after we'll elect the next president of the united states.
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>> on the show? >> yes, but -- what i should do is make a deal and say you'll grow one if we win them. >> i will grow a mustache if you win florida and north carolina. how is that? is that a deal? >> florida and/or north carolina? >> and/or north carolina. >> all right. >> wow. >> you bet your mustache on the president winning pennsylvania. how secure is your mustache today? >> the next time we see each other, chris, i guarantee that mustache will be right where it is today and where it's been for 40 years so you know how serious a bet that was. >> the next time you see me, i may be looking like freddie. looking at the tape, romney only has to win florida and north carolina. i'm feeling pretty good. >> by the way, ron kauffman has gotten into this bet, too.
ron is going to shave his mustache of 30 years if romney loses. >> axelrod kind of turned down that. he said he only had one mustache to give for his country. >> and speaking of florida, you say it may have been a bit hasty on the voter suppression stories out of florida. and perhaps i should reconsider. >> i just think this platform should be used to some extent to remind people you want every vote to count, every legitimate vote to count and we've already seen florida and ohio two critical votes here with the history of election day problems. we want to make sure there's as little of that as possible. elections are not perfect but we want a lot of voting and we want good voting. we don't want anyone suppressed. >> somebody there in the 2000 recount, i want everybody to vote. so i do want to say this, though. i get tired of people every four years talking about voter
suppression or democrats stealing votes in philadelphia, or republicans stealing votes here or there. it's like they're bobby knight. i just want to know where i'm coming from. we have gene robinson here. he's great. mort zuckerman, of course, is very great as well. >> voter suppression. >> voter suppression and voter fraud. >> you've been doing this for a very long time and it sounds like bobby knight playing the ref. this florida story is so legitimate that it would make newborn babies cry. but we hear it every four years the playing of the refs, don't we? >> everybody plays the refs all the time, so that's kind of part of the landscape. look, you know, i certainly hope that there won't be any voter suppression. there won't be any voter fraud. >> we agree. [ applause ] >> gene robinson against voter suppression. let the world go forth. >> but what's the deal about your state?
florida. >> we're kind of crazy. >> that story in the sports section of "the daily news." >> when you have a state where cro crocodiles crawl out of ponds -- >> that's true. >> and on to golf courses, things happen. >> like alabama without the rigorous governance. >> don't make fun of alabama. >> that's true. >> i love alabama. >> you folks in florida do live with critters in the backyard that can eat you, okay? >> strange things happen. so, really, if this is a real story, this voter story -- >> should be thoroughly looked at. wipe that smile off 0 your face. >> and benghazi, also, should be investigated. >> oh, yeah. >> mika is yelling stop over there. benghazi. i agree with you. both very important stories and both should be investigated. you had an endorsement this weekend. let's move on. and now you people in the
twitter basements across america, i'm not denigrating either story. so anyway, mort, you shocked the world with your endorsement four years ago and doggone it you did it again this time. >> well, we weren't trying to shock the world obviously. >> you shocked the world. >> we thought we would make a statement about what we thought was important in this election. and it was true in new york and it's true in the country. >> he sort of looks like a saint there. >> like an icon. an eastern orthodox icon with the halo. >> i like it. so talk about, first of all, four years ago why did you surprise a lot of your friends and endorse president obama four years ago? >> well, frankly, i had some exposure to him and i thought he was really an extraordinary figure in american history and political life and deserved support. >> what changed over four years? >> i had enough of an exposure to him and his administration and their policies to feel that they weren't working and they
weren't listening. >> what didn't work? >> all their economic programs didn't work. we have the worst economy today than we've had since the great depression. just think, we spent $25 billion a week in this country -- >> is that barack obama's fault, the bad economy, or is it still hanging over from the bush -- >> some of it is a hangover but some is the fact that we have policies that were misguided and misappropriated. >> which ones? >> the stimulus program. so much of that went to democratic constituencies. i wrote this at the time. that it it didn't have the multiplier effect that you want to have with a stimulus program and, therefore, it didn't have the effect it was going to have. it was a one for one instead of a two for one return. >> so what about mitt romney? he hasn't really laid out a clear road map on what he would do over the next four years. why do you believe mitt romney would turn the economy around? >> well, number one, i think he has a very good record in the area and he understands it. what i found, which was to my s
astonishment, there was little understanding of how the economy works and how business works in the obama administration and, what is more, they weren't listening. so we made no progress on that. and, to me, it was totally predictable. we have the -- 50% of the jobs we created are part-time jobs in this economy. 50%. this is really extraordinary. you have a very, very weak economy. it's much weaker than the numbers look. the real unemployment rate is 15% to 16% and these things really count to me. >> so, gene, this is the battle a lot of americans who believe things are getting better, there are some who still think we've a long way to go, the slowest recovery since the depression. so i guess that's why this -- while the president is ahead in most of the polls it's still a jump ball, isn't it? >> well, i do think it's still a jump ball. the president is ahead in most of the polls and if you're trying to knock off the president, you want to do it a little bit better in some of these states at this point. however, i think mitt romney has
failed to convince a lot of people that his policies will do better. >> he certainly has. >> that's been a lot of the battle -- that's been a lot of the battleground of this campaign in ohio, a crucial state, and in other states. you say the president is screwing up. what are you going to do and what have you done and what are your ideas going forward and i don't think he's been convincing. >> and mark, that was a calculated move from the romney campaign just like your cohort wrote in may. focus on tearing apart mitt romney. these campaigns calculated early on that there wasn't a big gain in talking about what they were going to do moving forward. >> i was struck over the weekend both the president and vice president in their speeches are basically saying without putting a totally fine point on it unambiguously mitt romney is not a good man. he's untrustworthy.
he's not honest. he's not telling you what he'll actually do as president. if the standard was to win, the president had to disqualify governor romney, nationally i don't think they've done that. his favorability is high. but in the states they've done a better job more like president bush did with john kerry in disqualifying, making him an unselfable altern it tiff. >> the bain adds in ohio had a lot of damage. craig shirley told me and craig, a lot of times, is dead right. he was telling me as these bain attacks were going on in the summer, he said our basketball coach always told us that you win games in november and december by practicing hard in august and september. and he was saying romney was losing this argument in the summer and it would come back to haunt him in the fall, and it
looks like in ohio at least that is the case. >> didn't they have a different strategy, though, they were going to save money for their ads and pressures in the last couple of months and the obama campaign was going to try to define him in the last couple of months? >> the idea was it was going to be outspent in the end. they front loaded in a fairly successful attempt to make him the issue. you can't get any better than that. >> they did in ohio. >> joining us from chicago, obama deputy campaign manager stephanie cutter. stephanie, we're down to the wire. and some of these polls are looking a little too close for comfort, aren't they? >> well, mika, i've been listening to the conversation over the past couple of minutes, and i think that lots of points have been made about how this is really, one, it's a race to the electoral votes but the polls that matter are the polls that are happening in the united states. it's a close race. there is no doubt about that but we have the advantage in critical states like ohio.
no republican has ever won the white house without going through ohio. we feel good about where we are right now. >> but the math map can be redrawn as you moved. >> it can be expanded, but i don't think there's any objective evidence that mitt romney has been able to expand that map. i mean, the thought of him going into pennsylvania and winning pennsylvania is just not based on reality. >> okay. >> when you say it's not based on reality there was a poll this weekend that some democrats are saying it was slanted, that's a tie. a couple polls last week that show the race at three points. obviously you guys are concerned enough about pennsylvania that you are sending bill clinton in there and joe buy depp has been in there. you say it's not based on reality. there's an outside shot romney can win there, right? >> i don't think it's possible, joe. you know, we're sending bill clinton in there because we're not going to take anything for granted. absolutely not. but i don't think mitt romney
can arrive in that state after not spending any time there, not putting any resources on the ground. we've had offices all over that state. we've been on the ground there for several years. i don't think he can make an argument in the closing days and win that state, not when every poll with the exception of the tribune poll you're pointing to shows us with six, seven, eight points up. i think the bet that you made with david axelrod -- >> yeah. >> david's mustache is safe. >> it makes you sick. i'm not sure what's the better option. >> i've been calling pennsylvania fool's gold for republicans because we always believe we're going to win it and lucy always picks up the football at the last second. >> stephanie, in ohio they count votes kind of slow. >> yes. >> how big would the margin have to be for you all to declare yourselves the victors in in ohio? >> well, right now we are winning the early vote by, you know, at a minimum of 2 to 1.
romney will have to win, i think the margin on election day by ten points. so we're watching it closely. we're not putting numbers out there in terms of what margin we need to go into election day with. but we've made significant advances in the early vote and we have one more day left. >> for you to declare victory in ohio if you're ahead even if there are uncounted ballots and absentee ballots? >> i am not going to make a prediction like that. we are going to see how the day goes tomorrow. we should know fairly early what that -- what it looks like on the ground in ohio. we have a pretty good idea who has voted and what the remaining votes are but i'm not going to make a prediction like that today. >> stephanie cutter -- >> thank you. >> good luck. >> eugene and mort, stay with us. what do you think of all this, mort? >> i think it's wonderful. i mean, it's american politics
at its best and at its worst. >> exactly. well put. >> i brought my slide rule today. i'm going to take it out and calculate the early vote -- >> and voter suppression. >> and i think i'm working on it. >> i think it can be done. >> a biggish knew a small town of pennsylvania i happen to know about but i don't want to talk about until after the election. >> and in pennsylvania, that's all they're talking about. >> tomorrow -- >> allentown and benghazi. >> exactly. >> stay with "morning joe" for special in-depth election day coverage. willie kicks us off at 5:30 a.m. and "morning joe" goes -- that's if we can stay awake -- until noon. we're going to do the show for six hours. >> unbelievable. and tomorrow is like the night of 1,000 stars. >> a million stars. >> tom brokaw, david gregory, chris matthews, andrea mitchell l, mute newt -- >> what?
>> the radio city rockettes, thousands of other guests tomorrow on election day. just joking rockettes. >> spongebob square pants. >> up next, business before the bell with our own spongebob, brian shactman when we return. meet the 5-passenger ford c-max hybrid. when you're carrying a lot of weight, c-max has a nice little trait, you see, c-max helps you load your freight, with its foot-activated lift gate.
for a slice of life after sandy, here is jim hoffer from the rockaways. >> reporter: in some parts of the rockaways signs of desperation are growing like the lines of those still waiting for gas. you've been in line how long here? >> since 5:30 approximate 0ly yesterday. >> reporter: up to 15 hours waiting in empty pumps in hopes the politicians' promises of gas deliveries are real. so you slept overnight in the car? >> yeah. freezing cold. it was cold all night. >> reporter: and that has become the real danger as nighttime temperatures dip to freezing and no gas for generators, no power for 80,000 families in queens, many in public housing. >> that was my husband at nyc investigates who has been out there covering this from every angle. now let's go to business before the bell with cnbc's brian shactman who also has something to add to this. brian? >> reporter: i still don't have power. i got lucky. i cover the gas lines on
wednesday on long island. there were fights for gas. >> it's incredible. >> reporter: even three or four days ago. i got lucky because they cut off the exit from the bridge to the palisades parkway and the gas station right north of it was open but no one was there so i was lucky to get gas this morning myself. i've never seen anything like it. >> i haven't, nope. not since actually the energy crisis in the '70s. >> reporter: and that dates us all. that's when we first got our first lease a few years after that. everyone is focused on sandy and the election. earnings from humana and time warner cable don't really move the needle, folks, here. the discussion we're having on cnbc a lot today is what's going to happen either way? an obama win, what does that mean for the markets? and a romney win, what does that mean for the markets? jack welch came on our air today and compared the revolution in oil and nat gas in america to
the internet. and he wants to see fracking go on and go on and go on. that was an interesting comment. >> mark zuckerman, jump in. >> i think the economy is weak, has been weak, the weakest it's been since i've been in business. >> you're not seeing signs of life in any of the data coming out? i could give you a list. >> the one sign i think is the most important is employment. >> right. >> and employment numbers basically have not changed. what has changed is how they measure it. what has changed we have substituted part-time employment for full-time employment and those people are considered to be working on some level but, in fact, they do not have health care. they do not have retirement benefits. >> a new face of the economy. >> and 50% of the jobs we have been creating are part-time jobs. that is a disaster for the american family and that's what's been going on and that, to me, is a really serious matter never mind that there are 23 million people in america without work, completely without work, and that has not changed and that's astonishing because we are spending $25 billion a week to try to stimulate the economy and it's not working.
>> brian shactman? >> change would be a good reason to do comprehensive health care because people don't have health care. >> i agree. i've always believed that. i agree with that completely. >> america, what are you going to choose? mort zuckerman, thank you very much. brian shactman, thank you as well. we'll be right back. a winter wonderland doesn't just happen. it takes some doing.
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due almost immediately. and now to another tax in "the new york times." tomorrow the city of richmond, california, could become the first city in america to tax businesses that sell sodas or other sweetened drinks. excellent. outside groups have spent nearly $2.5 million to try to defeat the ballot proposal but healthy americans will vote for it. the tampa bay times after sunday's new york city marathon was canceled, hundreds of runners head ed off to staten island with backpacks filled with supplies for those displaced by hurricane sandy. several other cities throughout the u.s. are opening their doors to runners looking for another marathon. this weekend the pensacola marathon is holding its ninth annual race and has offered spots to displaced new york city marathon runners. that's fantastic. pensacola is beautiful. you can get more information on their website at marathonpensacola.com. ♪
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to @morningmika. >> does she like the show? does she like our witty repar it te? >> it's amazing you haven't laid loudmouth joe out with one punch. >> shocking. who was that? >> sandra benson. >> ow. >> that's for you, sandra. as the returns come in, joe and i will be at the "y" in upper manhattan for a roundtable discussion on the election. go to 92y.org for tickets. that's tomorrow night starting at 8:15. hope to see you there. we'll have vodka and we're going to figure out a way to do shots as returns come in. what do you think? that will be fun. >> drink every time someone says too close to call. >> oh, i love it. that's good. that's good. >> what, in figure, did we learn? with the theory of relativity, the next... stop, stop, stop! my car! not so much. but that's okay. you're covered with great ideas like optional better car replacement from liberty mutual insurance.
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though all energy development comes with some risk, we're committed to safely and responsibly producing natural gas. it's not a dream. america's natural gas... putting us in control of our energy future, now. welcome back to "morning jojo joe." >> that's where we're going to be tomorrow. >> it makes me love this country just a little bit more. gene, what did you learn today? >> turnout could be key and only time will tell. >> oh, god. i'm going to do a shot. only time will tell. >> tomorrow is the greatest day in american democracy because it's when people go out and vote. >> exactly. what are you doing, mark? >> by tomorrow you'll be able to talk about voter fraud and suppression. >> yes,